Abortion has been a central focus of the 2024 presidential election, with Data for Progress polling finding that it is a top three issue for voters when considering whom to vote for. Vice President Kamala Harris has emphasized the devastating impacts of abortion bans across the country and tried to tie former President Donald Trump directly to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Meanwhile, Trump has tried to soften his position on abortion, claiming that abortion should be left up to the states, while also falsely stating that Democrats support “execution after birth.”
A new Data for Progress survey — and tracking data over the year — suggests that Democrats have been effective at handling the issue of abortion and connecting Trump to both state and national abortion restrictions in their campaign. Voters are unfavorable of Trump’s handling of abortion and believe he would sign a national abortion ban. Additionally, they increasingly blame him for new restrictions on abortion across the U.S.
Approval of Trump and Harris on abortion
By a -13 point margin, voters disapprove of how Trump is handling abortion issues in his campaign. Meanwhile, voters approve of Harris’ handling of abortion issues by a +12-point margin.
What voters think Trump will do on abortion if elected
When asked whether they think Trump prefers leaving abortion legislation up to the states or enacting a national ban, a majority of voters (52%) think that Trump prefers the former. This includes a plurality of women (47%) and a majority of independents (51%).
However, a plurality of voters under 45 and half of Democratic voters think Trump believes that there should be a national abortion ban.
While there is still some ambiguity as to what Trump’s policy stances are, when presented with the scenario of a Republican-controlled Congress passing a national ban, voters think Trump would sign a national ban into law, by a 15-point margin.
Since the end of 2023, there has been an increase in the percentage of voters who think Trump will attempt to pass a national abortion ban if elected — from 48% to 55%.
The poll also finds that the percentages of voters who believe that Trump will attempt to pass a 10% tariff, eliminate the Department of Education, and cut Social Security have risen since the end of 2023.
Similarly, compared with an April survey, more voters believe Trump will restrict access to abortion: 55% today compared with 47% in April. There has not been a similar increase in the percentage of voters (still a slight majority) who think Republicans in Congress will restrict access to abortion.
This shift in beliefs about Trump’s future actions is particularly notable among women and voters under 45. From April to September, women show a 10-point increase in believing Trump will restrict abortion access, while under 45 voters show an 8-point increase. In comparison, beliefs about what Republicans would do have stayed relatively consistent across demographic groups.
Voters increasingly blame Trump for new abortion restrictions
Regardless of what voters think Trump’s policy positions on abortion are, Democrats have been successful in better connecting Trump to the consequences of overturning Roe. Tracking data shows an increase from a December survey in the percentage of voters who hold Trump responsible for new state bans on abortion.
In December, only 24% of voters selected Trump, among a list of political actors, as responsible for abortion restrictions across the U.S., with the Supreme Court chosen by 50%. A recent September survey however finds 36% of voters choose Trump and 40% choose the Supreme Court.
Broadly, these results indicate that efforts to connect Trump with state and national abortion restrictions have been effective throughout 2024, with increases in the percentage of voters who believe he supports a national abortion ban and is responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade. Despite Trump’s attempts to moderate his image, he has failed to lower the percentage of voters who think he supports a national ban on abortion — and in fact, more voters have started to realize the drastic impact he could take to curtail abortion rights further.
It is imperative to continue connecting Trump to existing abortion restrictions and remind voters that he and the Republican Party will carry out an extreme anti-abortion agenda under Project 2025.
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Written by Evangel Penumaka (@evangelpenumaka), the polling principal at Data for Progress, and Abby Springs (@abby_springs), the Press Secretary at Data for Progress. Originally posted at Data for Progress.
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