We interview Dr. Allan Lichtman, professor of history at American University and author of the 13 Keys – a model for predicting who will win the presidential election. Dr. Lichtman's model has correctly predicted the winner of the presidency since 1984. What is he saying about this year’s race?
YouTube Video
Podcast
Show Notes
The 13 Keys
1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Links
- Dr. Lichtman’s YouTube Channel
- The latest version of the book at Carmichael’s
- The latest version of the book at Amazon
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