I know, I know, we’re still 13+ months before early voting starts for the 2024 general election, so sue me. But you know how sometimes the weather forecasters see a storm system in the middle of the Atlantic, or far out in the Gulf of Mexico, and the storm develops with such consistency, and the track is so predictable that even weathermen are able to do a Simone Biles and nail the landing.
That’s what this is starting to look like. Right now, the RNC and GOP are like some moron walking through a bee farm without the canvas coat and head mask with screening. They’re running around, slapping themselves all over, and just trying to survive.
When you look at the upcoming House elections in 2024, like my beloved Cubs had Tinker-Evers-Chance for a sure fire double play, the Democrats have added a mystery player that gives them a sure fire triple play. And the GOP is working like hell to give the Democrats extra outs.
Here’s the Democrats secret triple play for the House going into 2024. Trump-Redistricting-Abortion. This first one is easy – Traitor Tot. Since January 21st, 2017, Trump has been a toxic miasma over the GOP. He cost them 40 seats in the House in 2018, the White House and the Senate in 2020, and another Senate seat in 2022. The only reason the GOP retook the House in 2022 was gerrymandering, and moderate GOP House members in swing districts that Biden won by having GOP women voters come back to them while bouncing Traitor Tot. Good luck in 2024.
The second out is redistricting. This one is a kind of hybrid of GOP arrogance in their redistricting to gerrymander, and incompetence in newly formed non-partisan redistricting commissions. Due to a combination of GOP malfeasance and non-partisan redistricting errors, the Democrats now figure to pick up in 2024:
- One House seat in TX
- One House seat in LA
- One House seat in AL
- One House seat in GA
- One House seat in NC
- One House seat in NY
That alone is enough to give Hakeem Jeffries the Speaker’s gavel in January of 2025. But in addition, there have been districts redrawn that make them more competitive, and ripe for Democratic pickups.
The third leg is abortion. There’s a damn good reason that many of those GOP swing district congressmen won their seats in 2020 in districts Biden won. Because abortion wasn’t on the ballot! The Supreme Court didn’t overturn Roe v Wade until the summer of 2021. And since then the GOP in red states have gone batsh*t crazy passing ever more restrictive abortion bans in the states. But their own constituents have pushed back, and ballot initiatives to enshrine abortion in state constitutions have gone 0 for 7. And Florida may even be in play in 2024, thanks to an abortion ballot initiative there. But the GOP presidential candidates are extolling the wonders of an abortion ban. There is no abortion safe swing district in 2024.
But wait! There’s more! The GOP is so totally self-delusional and self-destructive that they’re going to give the Democrats even more chances to pick up seats. Just to point out a few of the highlights on the horizon;
- As I said, Florida may be in play in 2024 for the presidential race due to the abortion initiative on the ballot. But even if it doesn’t flip Florida blue as a state, there are several close swing districts that could flip blue, not only in the US House, but in the Florida House too
- In his thirst to maintain his majority, and therefore his Speaker’s gavel, House Squeaker Cave-in McCarthy has an indicted, potential federal felon in his caucus. But because his majority keeps shrinking, he dares not move against George Santos. Which, after the House resumes in September, there are 20 vulnerable NY GOP House members that are reported to be pushing a bill to expel Santos in order to save their own sorry asses. Personally, I’m betting the Democrats vote NO unanimously to keep Santos as an albatross around the GOP’s NY delegation in 2024.
- McCarthy really sh*t in his mess kit with the House Freedom caucus. In cutting a deal with Biden to get the debt ceiling off of the table for two years, and using moderate GOP votes to pass it. he deprived the diaper caucus of their sh*t fit. He can’t do that again. The Teabaggers are going to shut down the government on September 30th, whether McCarthy likes it or not. He has no choice but to let his two-year-olds touch the stove, and then, when they scream, he can cut another deal with Biden using moderate conservative votes. Which will leave the US population, especially vulnerable senior voters, which the GOP desperately needs, pissed at them heading into the primaries and general election
- Trump makes a twofer! I’ve already written that Idiot Boy is bleeding the GOP small donor data base dry to pay for his legal fees, and deep pocket donors are snubbing the RNC as long as Trump is on the ballot. There is a plan afoot for deep pocket GOP donors to target-donate to vulnerable GOP House swing districts and Senate seats, and cut Trump off from funding. But these deep pocket donors don’t have either the intelligence or targeted polling savvy to make sure that the cash gets to the right places
- In critical GOP battleground states like PA, MI, WI, MN, AZ and NV, the state GOP parties are going dead stony broke. That’s because those state parties have been overtaken by Trombies. The deep pocket donors aren’t going to bail them out, and by the looks of it, neither are moderate GOP in-state constituents. This will not only choke off vulnerable US House and Senate candidates, but state legislature candidates as well
Now you know why I’m already talking about the House 14 months out. But the 2024 general election is starting to shape up like that movie The Perfect Storm. Through stupidity, ideology, and intransigence, the GOP is purposely placing themselves on the wrong side of every issue from voting rights to LGBTQ rights, from abortion to gun control. And the toxic presence of Traitor Tot is going to squeeze the RNC for cash like they never have been before. Add in the inability of Trump-controlled state party organs to function, and it’s a recipe for disaster.
Meanwhile, the Democrats have their sh*t firmly together. Run on Bidenomics, tout the positive economic numbers, lower insulin costs, and point out the infrastructure improvements already underway. Throw in surgical strikes against Trump’s criminality and anti-democratic MAGA policies, and tie local candidates to unpopular policies. Plenty of time yet, but this isn’t even shaping up to be a fair fight.
Written by Joseph ”Murfster35” Murphy. Cross-posted from Politizoom.