Okay, political junkies and data nerds, here you go. I’ve spent the last two days getting all the latest number entered into our Election Finance page, which you can find here. I then did some basic arithmetic and comparisons to come up with these interesting facts from the latest reports, both federal and state.
Obviously, raising more money does not guarantee you will win the election, so don’t necessarily take any of this as strongly predictive. BUT, a financial advantage that is used wisely can definitely make a difference.
And, in the midst of this red, red state, the top state-level fund-raisers are both Democratic women: Karen Berg and Patty Minter. Congrats, ladies!
Finally, if you find this article interesting or valuable, please share it using the sharing buttons. Thanks!
The United State Senate race
The U.S. Senate race is a wipeout, money-wise, with Rand Paul having raised $23.6 million and Booker at $5.7 million. Cash on hand is even worse, with Paul having 12 times as much money to spend at Booker.
Will Rand Paul get 12 times the votes of Booker? No, of course not. But the financial disparity just adds to the steep hill Booker already has to climb.
The Congressional races
The six races for seats in the U.S. House are about where you would expect, with the five Republican candidates having raised over $10 million, led by Andy Barr’s $3.13 million.
The only Dem challenger even in the ballpark is McGarvey in the 3rd district at $2.77 million.
It should be noted that as of this writing, Matt Lehman’s latest report is not in. It is possible that he will be close to Massie in terms of money raised. We shall see.
Kentucky state House races
The state House races are where the numbers start to get really interesting.
The total raised across all the competitive races in our list is $3.2 million.
The Republican candidates have raised an average of $41,943. The Democratic average is $33,645.
The top fund-raisers among the Republican candidates
- Ken Fleming (i) – 152,467
- Jason Nemes (i) – 135,061
- Kevin Jackson – 132,562
- Kim Moser (i) – 115,194
- Kyle Whalen – 100,348
The t0p fund-raisers among the Democratic candidates:
- Patty Minter (i) – 144,562
- Rachel Roberts (i) – 124,545
- Buddy Wheatley (i) – 94,255
And, just so you know all is not gloom and doom for the Blue team, here are state House races where the Democrat has out-raised the Republican:
- 08 – Pam Dossett over Walker Thomas (i)
- 20 – Patti Minter (i) over Kevin Jackson
- 28 – Buddy Wheatley (i) over Jared Bauman
- 38 – Rachel Roarx over Charles Breitenbach
- 46 – Alan Gentry (i) over Ginny Mulvey-Woolridge
- 57 – Derrick Graham (i) over Gary Stratton
- 65 – Buddy Wheatley (i) over Stephanie Dietz
- 67 – Rachel Roberts (i) over Jerry Gearding
- 69 – Chris Brown over Steven Doan
- 70 – Meagan Bannon over William Lawrence (i)
- 77 – George Brown (i) over Terry Cunningham
- 88 – Cherlynn Stevenson (i) over Jim Coleman
- 94 – Angie Hatton (i) over Jacob Justice
Kentucky state Senate races
There are, of course, many fewer state Senate races, so comparisons are hard. The one stat that can be compared, though, is average amount raised. Compared to the House averages of 41,943 (R) and $33,645 (D), the senate races average $78,014 (R) and $61,572 (D).
The top Republican fund-raisers in the state Senate:
- Amanda Bledsoe – 157,385
- Robby Mills (i) – 116,323
- Jared Carpenter (i) – 96,794
- Edwin Williams – 93,056
And the top Democratic fund-raisers in the state Senate:
- Karen Berg (i) – 178,074
- Teresa Barton – 105,232
Finally, there are two state Senate races where the Dem has out-raised the Repub:
- 20 – Teresa Barton over Edwin Williams
- 26 – Karen Berg (i) over James Peden
One of the troublesome items you find when you look at the campaign finance reports is problems with reporting. Some candidates are late filing, and some don’t file at all.
Having just attended a KREF board meeting, I can tell you that they aren’t too pleased when you blow off your campaign finance reports. They want to be patient with you, as they know candidates have a bazillion things to think about – but if you just don’t do it, or you refuse to work with them, there is probably going to be a fine.
So, here are some problems I discovered in going through the records.
No reports for the general election at all
A number of candidates have failed to file any reports for the general. These include Democratic candidates Velvet Dowdy, Gwen Mitchell, Dustin Burley, Elaine Wilson-Reddy, Debby Lucas Angel, Anita Isaacs, Bennie Deskins, Theresa Combs, Gary Smith, Brittany Oliver, Bill O’Brien, and Sid Allen. One Republican, Chris Fugate , has not filed any general election reports, and one Libertarian, James Toller, as well. All of these are “delinquent” with KREF, and could face fines.
Missing the latest report
Another set of candidates have not filed the latest required report. Democrats in this list include congressional candidates Matt Lehman and Conor Halbleib, state House candidates Alan Lossner and Lamin Swann, and state Senate candidate Susan Cintra.
Republicans who haven’t filed their latest report include state House candidates Kimberly Holloway, Jerry Gearding, and Jacob Justice, and state Senate candidate Donald Douglas.
Due to a software error, Josie Raymond has not been able to close her primary account and transfer the money, thus none of her general election reports are showing up. However, KREF has assured her that they have received the reports, and she is in compliance.