The top lines of campaign finance statements are interesting – but can also be very misleading. Only when you really did into the reports can you get a sense of what is really going on.
Joe Candidate shows this great “Raised to Date” number – but how much came from a personal loan to the campaign? Jane Candidate shows a large amount of Cash on Hand – but how much did she start with? Which candidates are sucking up all the PAC donations? Which candidates are doing great with itemized contributions, which means contributions of at least $100? Remember, people who donate to a candidate tend to vote for that candidate as well.
Below are the latest finance numbers for twelve relatively competitive primaries, both Republican and Democratic. These are from the 30-Day Prior report, which was due on April 23. Each line includes the following:
- How much the candidate started with at the beginning of this reporting period (January 1 to now)
- How much they raised in itemized contributions
- If they got any PAC donations
- If they made a loan to their campaign
- The total amount they have raised to date
- Their cash on hand as of the report date
With less than a month to the primary, Cash on Hand can be an important number. Do they have the $$ to do any last-minute mailings or ads?
The other number I like to look at is Itemized Donations. As noted above, candidates getting lots of donations usually means they are also getting traction with voters.
Note that I did not include unitemized donations, which are small-dollar donations. The amount raised is not as important as the number of donors, and most of the reports showed either very few such donations or none at all.
Incumbents are listed in bold and have an asterisk* after their name. Below each table I’ve listed any PAC donations, as well as any other notes I think worth pointing out.
House 2 (Repub)
| Candidate | Started With | Itemized | PAC | Loans | Raised to Date | COH |
| Richard Heath | 2,996 | 5,500 | 5,100 | 13,646 | 12,146 | |
| Kimberly Holloway | 4,584 | 6,043 | 4,200 | 17,876 | 10,604 |
Heath PACs: 2,100 KY Chamber; 500 Speak Up for Rural Electrification; 500 Optometric PAC; 1,000 Syngenta Corp PAC; 500 Bourbon Trail PAC; 500 Brown-Forman PAC
House 10 (Repub)
| Candidate | Started With | Itemized | PAC | Loans | Raised to Date | COH |
| Julia Cantwell | 0 | 7,606 | 1,200 | 3,700 | 13,015 | 3,494 |
| Josh Calloway | 0 | 8,480 | 250 | 8,730 | 3,748 |
Cantwell PACs: 1,000 Warehouse Men Local 89; 200 KY Sierra Club
Calloway PACs: 250 Otometric Political Action Committee
An election worth watching. Calloway has been a staunch right-wing Christian legislator; I’m wondering if some of his constituents are tired of that.
House 29 (Dem)
| Candidate | Started With | Itemized | PAC | Loans | Raised to Date | COH |
| Matthew Pfaadt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15,291 | 15,291 | 13,636 |
| Ricky Santiago | 0 | 14,184 | 0 | 363 | 14,547 | 7,790 |
An open seat, where one candidate is counting on his own money, and the other is actively raising money from donors.
House 41 (Dem)
| Candidate | Started With | Itemized | PAC | Loans | Raised to Date | COH |
| William Adams | 0 | 47,175 | 2,100 | 3,700 | 58,993 | 32,580 |
| Mary Lou Marzian | 3,731 | 69,079 | 3,550 | 0 | 76,860 | 71,278 |
Adams PACs: 2100 Pipefitters Local 502
Marzian PACs: 500 KY Attorneys Political Action Trust; 2,000 Warehousemen Local 89; 300 KPA-PAC; 500 Honor Bound PAC; 250 G-PAC
One would expect Marzian’s name recognition to carry this one, but Adams seems to be holding his own. Interesting to see how this one turns out.
House 42 (Dem)
| Candidate | Started With | Itemized | PAC | Loans | Raised to Date | COH |
| Jonathan Musselwhite | 0 | 8,050 | 1,000 | 120 | 9,170 | 5,246 |
| Jack Walker | 0 | 9,575 | 0 | 0 | 9,575 | 7,533 |
| Joshua Watkins | 0 | 36,440 | 0 | 105 | 36,545 | 18,330 |
Musselwhite PACs: 1,000 Warehousemen Local 89
Watkins is killing it in donations. Will that translate into a win in the Dem-majority district? We shall see.
House 47 (Repub)
| Candidate | Started With | Itemized | PAC | Loans | Raised to Date | COH |
| Mark Gilkison | 0 | 6,600 | 0 | 20,000 | 26,600 | 19,538 |
| Felicia Rabourn | 13,499 | 5,025 | 0 | 0 | 18,524 | 18,285 |
This is one of those races where the inside details matter. Gilkison loaned his campaign more than Rabourn has raised to date. But, Rabourn is the incumbent (and part of the Liberty Caucus). That may make the $$ irrelevant.
House 60 (Repub)
| Candidate | Started With | Itemized | PAC | Loans | Raised to Date | COH |
| Chris Pavese | 0 | 24,900 | 4,600 | 11,000 | 42,270 | 10,020 |
| Marianne Proctor | 21,686 | 15,005 | 250 | 0 | 38,623 | 24,619 |
Pavese PACs: 1,500 KY Chamber; 2,100 NKY Chamber; 1,000 KY Assoc of Health Care Facilities
Proctor PACs: 250 KY Optometrist PAC
Proctor is another one of the first-term Liberty Caucus that the Chambers of Commerce is going after. Will their support give Pavese the edge? Or will Proctor’s opening war chest be the difference? Another one to watch on election night.
House 66 (Repub)
| Candidate | Started With | Itemized | PAC | Loans | Raised to Date | COH |
| Charles Massey | 31,451 | 48,520 | 0 | 0 | 89,877 | 16,509 |
| Ted Roberts | 0 | 49,633 | 3,000 | 120 | 53,499 | 25,102 |
Roberts PACs: 1,000 NAGR PAC; 2,000 Making A Sensible Shift In Elections PAC
House 91 (Repub)
| Candidate | Started With | Itemized | PAC | Loans | Raised to Date | COH |
| Darrell Billings | 0 | 66,521 | 2,000 | 1,000 | 70,021 | 38,519 |
| Billy Wesley | 0 | 16,650 | 2,750 | 100 | 19,500 | 9,496 |
Billings PACs: 1,000 KY Chamber; 1,000 Creating Oppertunities Marketing And Enthusiasm
Wesley PACs: 250 KY Manufacturing Housing Inst; 500 Alliance Coal; 500 Optometric PAC; 1,000 Charter Spectrum Employee PAC; 500 Marathon Employee PAC
One publication called Wesley “Liberty-adjacent,” which explains the Chamber donation. Plus, Billings is killing it in donations. I suspect Billings is going to take this one.
House 93 (Dem)
| Candidate | Started With | Itemized | PAC | Loans | Raised to Date | COH |
| Adrielle Camuel | 0 | 29,348 | 500 | 2,336 | 32,244 | 12,047 |
| Sarah Ritter | 0 | 9,287 | 0 | 5,350 | 14,657 | 7,610 |
Camuel PACS: 500 Ky Attorneys Political Action Trust
Senate 7 (Repub)
| Candidate | Started With | Itemized | PAC | Loans | Raised to Date | COH |
| Ed Gallrein | 101,084 | 62,354 | 0 | 19,600 | 169,169 | 148,906 |
| Aaron Reed | 4,161 | 7,700 | 0 | 0 | 25,660 | 12,261 |
| Adrienne Southworth | 196 | 43,703 | 0 | 0 | 48,219 | 29,452 |
This one is a mess. Southworth is the Libertarian-leaning incumbent, who is supported by the Make Liberty Win group. Gallrein is supported by the Chamber, while Reed is supported by American for Prosperity. If money was all that mattered, Gallrein would already be elected, as he began the year with more money than anyone else in the article, and his Cash on Hand is in first place as well. But incumbency makes a difference, and Southworth certainly has made a name for herself. I can’t wait to see how this one turns out.
Senate 33 (Dem)
| Candidate | Started With | Itemized | PAC | Loans | Raised to Date | COH |
| Michael Churchill | 0 | 2,105 | 0 | 100 | 2,305 | 67 |
| Gerald Neal | 21,308 | 41,625 | 4,000 | 0 | 74,966 | 49,047 |
| Attica Scott | 0 | 23,773 | 0 | 538 | 24,348 | 611 |
Neal PACs: 2,000 Teamsters Local 89; 500 KY Psychological Assoc PAC; 1,000 Charter Spectrum Employee PAC; 500Erie Insurance Pac-Federal
This one is going to come down to one thing, and it’s not money: Whose voters are going to turn out? Neal probably has the votes of most of the older and reliable voters in the district, while Scott should garner most of the younger and more progressive voters. We shall see.
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