Here’s the finances for 12 competitive primaries for General Assembly Skip to content

Here’s the finances for 12 competitive primaries for General Assembly

Can a campaign’s finance reports tell you if they are going to win? Sometimes. And sometimes those reports reveal details that can tell you even more.

5 min read
Views:

The top lines of campaign finance statements are interesting – but can also be very misleading. Only when you really did into the reports can you get a sense of what is really going on.

Joe Candidate shows this great “Raised to Date” number – but how much came from a personal loan to the campaign? Jane Candidate shows a large amount of Cash on Hand – but how much did she start with? Which candidates are sucking up all the PAC donations? Which candidates are doing great with itemized contributions, which means contributions of at least $100? Remember, people who donate to a candidate tend to vote for that candidate as well.

Below are the latest finance numbers for twelve relatively competitive primaries, both Republican and Democratic. These are from the 30-Day Prior report, which was due on April 23. Each line includes the following:

  • How much the candidate started with at the beginning of this reporting period (January 1 to now)
  • How much they raised in itemized contributions
  • If they got any PAC donations
  • If they made a loan to their campaign
  • The total amount they have raised to date
  • Their cash on hand as of the report date

With less than a month to the primary, Cash on Hand can be an important number. Do they have the $$ to do any last-minute mailings or ads?

The other number I like to look at is Itemized Donations. As noted above, candidates getting lots of donations usually means they are also getting traction with voters.

Note that I did not include unitemized donations, which are small-dollar donations. The amount raised is not as important as the number of donors, and most of the reports showed either very few such donations or none at all.

Incumbents are listed in bold and have an asterisk* after their name. Below each table I’ve listed any PAC donations, as well as any other notes I think worth pointing out.

House 2 (Repub)

Candidate Started With Itemized PAC Loans Raised to Date COH
Richard Heath 2,996 5,500 5,100 13,646 12,146
Kimberly Holloway 4,584 6,043 4,200 17,876 10,604

Heath PACs: 2,100 KY Chamber; 500 Speak Up for Rural Electrification; 500 Optometric PAC; 1,000 Syngenta Corp PAC; 500 Bourbon Trail PAC; 500 Brown-Forman PAC 

House 10 (Repub)

Candidate Started With Itemized PAC Loans Raised to Date COH
Julia Cantwell 0 7,606 1,200 3,700 13,015 3,494
Josh Calloway 0 8,480 250 8,730 3,748

Cantwell PACs: 1,000 Warehouse Men Local 89; 200 KY Sierra Club
Calloway PACs: 250 Otometric Political Action Committee

An election worth watching. Calloway has been a staunch right-wing Christian legislator; I’m wondering if some of his constituents are tired of that.

House 29 (Dem)

Candidate Started With Itemized PAC Loans Raised to Date COH
Matthew Pfaadt 0 0 0 15,291 15,291 13,636
Ricky Santiago 0 14,184 0 363 14,547 7,790

An open seat, where one candidate is counting on his own money, and the other is actively raising money from donors. 

House 41 (Dem)

Candidate Started With Itemized PAC Loans Raised to Date COH
William Adams 0 47,175 2,100 3,700 58,993 32,580
Mary Lou Marzian 3,731 69,079 3,550 0 76,860 71,278

Adams PACs: 2100 Pipefitters Local 502
Marzian PACs: 500 KY Attorneys Political Action Trust; 2,000 Warehousemen Local 89; 300 KPA-PAC; 500 Honor Bound PAC; 250 G-PAC

One would expect Marzian’s name recognition to carry this one, but Adams seems to be holding his own. Interesting to see how this one turns out.

House 42 (Dem)

Candidate Started With Itemized PAC Loans Raised to Date COH
Jonathan Musselwhite 0 8,050 1,000 120 9,170 5,246
Jack Walker 0 9,575 0 0 9,575 7,533
Joshua Watkins 0 36,440 0 105 36,545 18,330

Musselwhite PACs: 1,000 Warehousemen Local 89

Watkins is killing it in donations. Will that translate into a win in the Dem-majority district? We shall see.

House 47 (Repub)

Candidate Started With Itemized PAC Loans Raised to Date COH
Mark Gilkison 0 6,600 0 20,000 26,600 19,538
Felicia Rabourn 13,499 5,025 0 0 18,524 18,285

This is one of those races where the inside details matter. Gilkison loaned his campaign more than Rabourn has raised to date. But, Rabourn is the incumbent (and part of the Liberty Caucus). That may make the $$ irrelevant. 

House 60 (Repub)

Candidate Started With Itemized PAC Loans Raised to Date COH
Chris Pavese 0 24,900 4,600 11,000 42,270 10,020
Marianne Proctor 21,686 15,005 250 0 38,623 24,619

Pavese PACs: 1,500 KY Chamber; 2,100 NKY Chamber; 1,000 KY Assoc of Health Care Facilities
Proctor PACs: 250 KY Optometrist PAC

Proctor is another one of the first-term Liberty Caucus that the Chambers of Commerce is going after. Will their support give Pavese the edge? Or will Proctor’s opening war chest be the difference? Another one to watch on election night.

House 66 (Repub)

Candidate Started With Itemized PAC Loans Raised to Date COH
Charles Massey 31,451 48,520 0 0 89,877 16,509
Ted Roberts 0 49,633 3,000 120 53,499 25,102

Roberts PACs: 1,000 NAGR PAC; 2,000 Making A Sensible Shift In Elections PAC

House 91 (Repub)

Candidate Started With Itemized PAC Loans Raised to Date COH
Darrell Billings 0 66,521 2,000 1,000 70,021 38,519
Billy Wesley 0 16,650 2,750 100 19,500 9,496

Billings PACs: 1,000 KY Chamber; 1,000 Creating Oppertunities Marketing And Enthusiasm
Wesley PACs: 250 KY Manufacturing Housing Inst; 500 Alliance Coal; 500 Optometric PAC; 1,000 Charter Spectrum Employee PAC; 500 Marathon Employee PAC

One publication called Wesley “Liberty-adjacent,” which explains the Chamber donation. Plus, Billings is killing it in donations. I suspect Billings is going to take this one.

House 93 (Dem)

Candidate Started With Itemized PAC Loans Raised to Date COH
Adrielle Camuel 0 29,348 500 2,336 32,244 12,047
Sarah Ritter 0 9,287 0 5,350 14,657 7,610

Camuel PACS: 500 Ky Attorneys Political Action Trust 

Senate 7 (Repub)

Candidate Started With Itemized PAC Loans Raised to Date COH
Ed Gallrein 101,084 62,354 0 19,600 169,169 148,906
Aaron Reed 4,161 7,700 0 0 25,660 12,261
Adrienne Southworth 196 43,703 0 0 48,219 29,452

This one is a mess. Southworth is the Libertarian-leaning incumbent, who is supported by the Make Liberty Win group. Gallrein is supported by the Chamber, while Reed is supported by American for Prosperity. If money was all that mattered, Gallrein would already be elected, as he began the year with more money than anyone else in the article, and his Cash on Hand is in first place as well. But incumbency makes a difference, and Southworth certainly has made a name for herself. I can’t wait to see how this one turns out. 

Senate 33 (Dem)

Candidate Started With Itemized PAC Loans Raised to Date COH
Michael Churchill 0 2,105 0 100 2,305 67
Gerald Neal 21,308 41,625 4,000 0 74,966 49,047
Attica Scott 0 23,773 0 538 24,348 611

Neal PACs: 2,000 Teamsters Local 89; 500 KY Psychological Assoc PAC; 1,000 Charter Spectrum Employee PAC; 500Erie Insurance Pac-Federal

This one is going to come down to one thing, and it’s not money: Whose voters are going to turn out? Neal probably has the votes of most of the older and reliable voters in the district, while Scott should garner most of the younger and more progressive voters. We shall see.

--30--



Print Friendly and PDF

Bruce Maples

Bruce Maples has been involved in politics and activism since 2004, when he became active in the Kerry Kentucky movement. (Read the rest of his bio on the Bruce Maples Bio page in the bottom nav bar.)

Twitter Facebook Website Louisville, KY

Comments

Latest

The Daily Wrap for Thursday, 5/23

The Daily Wrap for Thursday, 5/23

Still some wrap-up from Tuesday’s primary, including late calls of winners and possible recounts. Plus, some breaking news in the tweets below, and a cool story about a possible billboard (or billboards!) in west Kentucky.

Members Public
Clicky